Impact of Junior College Mergers on Supply of Students for University Admission

Mdm Speaker, cohort sizes coming out of secondary school will fall by about 20% over the course of this decade. It will affect both the number of GCE "A" level, as well as polytechnic students and graduates going to the universities. But this impact will be cushioned by the increase in cohort participation rate from 35% now to 40% in 2020.

In 2017, this year, we expect to admit about 19,000 students into locally funded universities. This will likely fall by around 10% to 12% by 2025. But there is no issue of losing critical mass in our universities and institutions, because we only have five autonomous universities, or six, if the Singapore University of Social Sciences (SUSS) Bill is passed by this House later in the day.

Because university education is more specialised, there is also less need for critical mass. The Singapore University of Technology and Design, for example, is doing very well as a university with a unique focus on design, admitting only 500 to 600 students a year.

In fact, despite falling cohort sizes, we should expect more diversity in pathways at the university level. Expanding our higher education pathways is not incompatible with decreasing cohort sizes. In fact, as our manpower and talent base decreases, it is even more important to uncover everyone's potential to the fullest through more diverse education pathways.

In addition, our universities have taken on the mandate of lifelong learning, and I expect the university landscape to become more variegated and vibrant over the years.

I thank the Minister. Talking about diverse pathways, there have been talks that the move to reduce the junior colleges (JCs) is kind of a reduction of one pathway, at least the JC pathway, in which the JC pathway becomes a little more elitist because of the closing down of neighbourhood JCs. So, to this criticism, would the Government consider if this is a preservation of the multiple pathways to the university or is this a kind of elitisation of JC education?

This is a school question, but the other Minister can also answer. Even with a reduced cohort pathway and merging of JCs, JC eligibility criteria remain the same, at 20 points. At or below 20 points, you are eligible to enter JC. The pathway of JC remains intact. I think we need to understand that when cohort sizes fall, it is relentless. It affects everyone. Every pathway will shrink accordingly but, as I mentioned earlier, the fact that it is smaller, it means that we have to put in even more effort to make sure it is more diverse, so that everyone can fulfil their potential.

You look at cinemas now. It is getting smaller and fewer. But each cinema is showing a lot more titles. So, I think it is the same logic. Falling cohort sizes and increasing diversity are not incompatible notions.