Analysis of Decreased Employment in Permanent Jobs for Fresh Graduates in Past Two Years and Measures to Monitor and Boost Employment

Mr Patrick Tay Teck Guan asked the Minister for Education in respect of the Joint Autonomous Universities Graduate Employment Survey 2024, what is the Ministry doing to monitor, manage and mitigate the higher unemployment rate of fresh graduates as compared to the past two years.

Employment rates are affected by various factors such as economic and labour market conditions. The employment rates of fresh graduates from Autonomous Universities (AUs) have remained broadly stable over the decade, with some year-to-year fluctuations due to cyclical changes.

The labour market saw a strong recovery in 2021 and 2022 post-COVID. In comparison, while the labour market was still tight, there was lower hiring demand and fewer job vacancies in 2024. We also observed some graduates taking longer to secure full-time employment in 2024. These may have contributed to the reported decrease in full-time permanent employment rate and increase in the unemployment rate of graduates from our AUs at six months post-graduation.

Even as there was a broad decline in full-time permanent employment rates, some clusters such as Health Sciences and Business continued to see strong employment outcomes. Median salaries for fresh graduates have also continued to rise, with a year-on-year increase of 4.2% in 2024, even as the total number of fresh AU graduates increased over the past five years. This indicates that employers continue to value the skills of our graduates. It also reflects the Government’s commitment to creating good jobs, especially in the growth sectors.

Beyond cyclical fluctuations, we will continue to monitor broader social trends, such as evolving market demand, changing job preferences and aspirations, including more work flexibility and higher salary expectations, that may also affect the employment of our graduates upon graduation.

Apart from the Graduate Employment Survey, which tracks employment outcomes six months after graduation, the Government also monitors medium-term outcomes of our graduates through periodic labour market surveys. These continuous efforts will enable our curriculum to remain relevant and responsive to market demand.

The AUs will continue to engage industry partners to organise industry talks and career fairs to expose students to emerging sector trends, in-demand skills and connect them with potential employers. Alongside the broad-based employment support and career guidance offered to all students and graduates, personalised career coaching is also available at the respective AUs' Career Centres. Graduates who require further support in their job search may reach out to the Career Centres, even after graduation. They may also tap on the career matching services and online resources offered by Workforce Singapore and the National Trades Union Congress' (NTUC’s) Employment and Employability Institute (e2i).

Thank you, Sir. And I thank the Minister of State for the reply. Two clarifications.

First, I note the Minister of State's reply that there are cyclical factors, but I wonder whether there are also structural factors at play in some of the data and trends that we are observing. Because compared to pre-COVID levels, full-time employment of graduates did go up sharply and exceeded pre-COVID levels in 2021 and 2022, as the Minister of State has also noted in her reply, as we recovered from COVID. But this regressed back to pre-COVID levels in 2023. And then in 2024, the full-time employment rate for fresh graduates has actually come in below pre-COVID levels, and quite significantly so for certain sectors. In Business, it is about five percentage points lower in 2024 compared to pre-COVID levels; in the Built Environment, seven percentage points lower in 2024; and in Engineering, five percentage points lower compared to pre-COVID levels.

And one would imagine that these are growing sectors and there should be growing demand for our graduates in these sectors. Can I ask the Minister of State what is driving this trend and are there structural factors at play?

The second clarification also on the basis of my first question, have these observations given the Ministry of Education (MOE) any cause to look at and adjust its fundamental assumptions in the determination of the number of places available in each course of study in each university going forward?

To put things in context, the Graduate Employment Survey provides a snapshot of graduate employment outcomes approximately six months after graduation. The employment rates for Singaporeans aged 25 to 29 have remained broadly stable over the decade along with low long-term unemployment rates. In 2024, about 95% of this age group were in full-time employment. This suggests that our graduates do not have prolonged job search difficulties. [Please refer to "Clarification by Minister of State for Education", Official Report, 7 March 2025, Vol 95, Issue 160, Correction By Written Statement section.]

There are fluctuations in sectoral employment rates and these are to be expected given the cyclical nature of the economy and the labour market. We will continue to work with the sector agencies to monitor these outcomes to see if there is a more persistent trend. For specific sectors, such as the Built Environment and Manufacturing, and in addition to the cyclical effects, these have also tended to be sectors that have faced greater challenges attracting graduates into the sector. There are ongoing efforts by the sector agencies and industry to review how they can better attract graduates into these sectors.

On the second question, to ensure that our graduates are equipped with skills that are needed to access good employment opportunities, MOE regularly reviews together with the Ministry of Trade and Industry, and the Ministry of Manpower the forecasts of sectors' investments and from there, adjusts the university places for each course. This takes into account the employment prospects of graduates from various disciplines alongside national manpower needs and of course, the students' interests.

Thank you, Mr Speaker. Can I just ask two clarifications from the Minister of State? It is with regard to the higher median salary in the third question of my original PQ. What is driving the higher median salary? Is it a demand for higher skills? Just as the hon Member, Mr Xie had highlighted, is there a skills gap, because there is greater demand in certain sectors for jobs, and employers are facing difficulty filling those. At the same time, our fresh graduates are facing problems. So, is there a skills gap? And also, what is driving the higher median salary?

The higher median salary that we are seeing reflects the market trends and also how more of our graduates are being drawn to the growth sectors. Over the years we have also adjusted the university places in courses that we deem to have higher market demand, as well as high interest of our students. So, actually, in terms of absolute numbers of our fresh graduates from the AUs, it has grown over the last five years. And we see that more are going to the growth sectors with higher salaries. Hence, there is this increase in median salaries of our graduates as a whole.

To the Member's question, whether there could be skills gap, our universities always work with the sector agencies and industry leaders to look at the skills required for the jobs that are available today. We try as well to project ahead what might be the future skills. It takes about three to four years in the universities for our students before they graduate. And it is therefore important that we always update the curriculum to make sure that our graduates are equipped with the relevant skills by the time they graduate.

Also, in my earlier point, in response to Mr Xie Yao Quan's question, the Graduate Employment Survey just gives us a snapshot at the six-month mark. We do know that amongst those who responded that they were unemployed after six months of graduation, actually, about half of them had received job offers, and about I think two-thirds of this group that received job offers that had still not yet started work, they were going to start work in due course. And the remaining one-third of this group that had job offers reject the job offers for various reasons.

So, the texture is not as straightforward as what is seen. We will continue to do our best to support every graduate out there to be able to find a job that suits their needs.

Sir, just one clarification with the Minister of State. In 2020 to 2022, particularly during the pandemic period, there was a sudden surge of high demand in professional services, including and especially in infocomm technology (ICT). And as a result, many in the last couple of years have embarked on Computer Science and ICT-related programmes in our Institutes of Higher Learning (IHLs).

However, as we can see, in the last 15 to 18 months, there is a bit of consolidation, rationalisation and restructuring, exacerbated by generative artificial intelligence (Gen AI) in this sector. And many of these graduates are coming out in the next three years. How is MOE helping, and integrating possibly the Ministry of Manpower, to overcome this fear or the apprehensions of our upcoming graduates?

Post-COVID, we saw a sudden surge in demand for workers in ICT and also a spike in the starting salary for graduates in this sector. I recall seeing some of these headline figures, some companies offering $8,000 and above for fresh graduates from our universities going into this sector. The market has kind of stabilised in more recent times. We know that there are some graduates in ICT who are able to get employed very quickly and still being offered very high salaries. But the demand has tapered and so, we are also seeing some graduates who feel that perhaps if they wait a little bit more, they might be able to still find a job with similarly attractive high salaries.

I think there is transition going on now. We do ask our graduates who are still looking for a job to speak to career coaches and keep in touch with the Career Centres in the universities so that they are more updated on the industry trends.

On graduates who are in ICT, there is actually still a very high demand, although we also know out there in the market, there is some churn, some consolidation, some retrenchments as well. So, it is understandable that the hiring of our graduates in this sector has softened.

There are enough jobs though in our economy. And as you can see, the full-time employment rates of our employed graduates in the 25 to 29 age group remains decently high – about 95%, if I recall correctly. It means that our graduates from ICT actually do have the flexibility to go to jobs that are in adjacent sectors too.

Obliged, Mr Speaker. Thank you to the Minister of State for the reply. My two clarifications will really be a follow-on from the question I asked last month on the Polytechnic Graduate Employment Survey 2024, which also showed fewer graduates securing full-time permanent jobs. The Minister for Education gave an extensive reply in response to that PQ.

My first clarification for the Minister of State is whether the Minister of State sees the latest Graduate Employment Survey as reflective of a perhaps longer-term secular trend of graduates at the university level finding it harder to get jobs? With reference to the Graduate Employment Survey, if we look at course clusters such as Art, Design and Media, post-COVID, 2022 to 2024, Art, Design and Media, a 11.3% drop to 60.9%; Engineering was 91.6%, dropped to 79.3%, and that is a 12.3% drop; and so forth.

So, the concern is, does the Ministry assess this potentially to be a secular issue, going forward?

The second point is with regard to the reply that the Minister for Education gave vis-a-vis the earlier PQ that I filed in February on polytechnic graduates. The Minister also made reference to university graduates and the things that are required to ensure that they get not just a good salary and a fulfilling job at the point of entry post graduation, but also through their careers. And the two points he made was first closer industry university collaboration. I think the Minister of State referred to that. But the second point he made also was about developing adjacent competencies for these graduates, and this includes those university graduates.

So, my point is, can we foresee at the MOE level for there to be a review of course curriculum, course structure to develop these adjacent competencies in a more structured and directed manner? So, it is not a question of doing one extra module or two extra modules in an adjacent subject, for example, like human resources (HR), but more directed courses to ensure that in the event a graduate cannot find a place in his primary course of study, there is something parallel, which potentially could provide good job opportunities for that graduate.

For the two supplementary questions, I will answer the second one first. Certainly, yes, we believe in a broad-based education for our students. From the time they enter our mainstream education, we already start equipping them with different sets of skills and with some specialisation as they go into our tertiary education institutions. And even in the tertiary education institutions, students actually have the ability to choose various other modules beyond their specialised courses, so that they will have also adjacent skills that help broaden their employability.

And certainly, we will continue to review the course syllabus and offerings to our graduates. We do this in close partnership with the industry and the sector agencies. Actually, beyond the technical skills and the professional skills, it is also important to equip our graduates, whether from polytechnics, the Institute of Technical Education (ITE) or universities, with useful life skills, so that they are able to navigate uncertainties and also be able to pick up new knowledge and skills beyond graduation. And I think that is important. So, lifelong learning, getting our graduates to understand that what they have learned or picked up in the first 15 years of their education, while it is enough for them to be able or for most of them to be able to get jobs, they still need to upgrade themselves. And if they are in a sector that is disrupted due to external environmental conditions, then all the more it is important for them to have the relevant life skills and the gumption to pick up new skills.

On the first question, Mr Pritam Singh made reference to polytechnic graduates. The Minister for Education gave a very long reply. I will not repeat it. But I would like to say that while there was a decline in the graduate employment for that group, there are also more and more polytechnic graduates whom we see would want to upgrade themselves beyond a diploma. That also affects the employment outcomes for this group. So, I think it is useful for us not to over-generalise the graduate employment of our polytechnic and our university students together.

And to the question of whether it has become harder for university graduates to find a job, I explained quite extensively earlier on. The Graduate Employment Survey is just a snapshot of the employment situation at the six-month mark after graduation. I think it is important for us to take a step back and look at the employment of our Singaporean adults in the age group, say 25 to 29. What we see is that the trend has been quite stable. The employment rate is 95% and the long-term unemployment for this group is very low. [Please refer to "Clarification by Minister of State for Education", Official Report, 7 March 2025, Vol 95, Issue 160, Correction By Written Statement section.]

Rest assured that we will continue to look out for our graduates' employment outcomes and we are ready to make adjustments so that graduates will be able to find fulfilling jobs that meet their aspirations and needs.

Thank you, Mr Speaker. I think the Minister of State may have misunderstood my first supplementary question. It was not on polytechnic graduates per se. It was about the longer-term structural trends with regard to university graduates. I referenced polytechnic graduates because the reply that Minister gave earlier in February also include the reference, not just to polytechnic graduates, but ITE graduates, university graduates as well. So, the first supplementary question was essentially about the longer-term secular trend given the numbers coming out of the Graduate Employment Survey since 2022. Does the Minister of State or the Ministry see it as a longer-term structure, secular trend in a particular direction?

I have also replied that for our university graduates, we look beyond the last three years. We look at the last decade. And I think it is important that we not just look at a longer timeframe to ascertain the trend and whether there is some intervention that we require, but also look at beyond the six-month mark. So, beyond six months after graduation, what is the employment and employability of our graduates? I think that is more meaningful.

Speaker, Sir, I thought it is a very useful discussion today. I would just like to make a few points in response to various Members' comments and suggestions. Because yesterday we hear a suggestion for us that we should just increase the number of graduates so long as they can perhaps meet some benchmarks.

And today's discussion actually brings us back to where exactly we want to go. It is not about how many graduates we produce a year that matters most at 18 years old. What matters most, whether is it their graduates from our universities or polytechnics, is that they have the required skills to get good jobs, not just at the starting, with good starting pay, but with good trajectory. And this is the key point. Some countries, they produce over 90% of their cohort as graduates and they have quite poor employment outcomes. Some developed countries in Europe have only 20% going to universities and many of them going to trade schools, and they have very good employment outcomes.

The crux of the matter is what are the skill sets that we are equipping them with. That is most important. And it is not just about having everybody go to university, because we all want to go after the paper chase. So, this is my first point.

The second point is that indeed we must always monitor the long-term secular trends and the short-term cyclical trends. For us to produce a graduate, whether in polytechnic or university, it takes us three to four years, so we cannot be responding to the short-term trends always. It takes us four years to produce a graduate. So, when we design our courses, we must have a long-term perspective of what are the skill sets that are required by the market, not in the next one to two years, but in the next five to 10 years. And more importantly, what are the adjacent skill sets that will allow our people to pivot to new jobs that may be created and may not be even in existence today. And that is how we must work closely with our industry.

So, I would just like to register the point that together with yesterday's discussion, it is not about chasing the numbers of graduates. Certainly, it is about equipping our graduates regardless of their age with the relevant skills.