SAF's Capability Given Declining Birth Rate

Mr Speaker, as National Service (NS) enlistees are drawn from eligible male Singapore Citizens and Permanent Residents, the SAF is affected by birth rates and demographic trends. To illustrate, let me give Members some figures. So, if you look at the 1990s, we were drawing in about 15,000 NSmen that were enlisted into the SAF each year. This was in the 1990s. From the year 2000, we experienced higher numbers because the children born to cohorts of baby-boomers came of enlistment age, and this included the males born in the year of the Dragon in 1988. So, as a result, the SAF enlistments increased and reached a peak of about 21,000 in 2011. Going forward, due to an ageing population and declining fertility trends, SAF enlistments are expected to gradually taper and revert to levels in the 1990s, of about 15,000 each year. With these enlistment numbers, our long-term projections till 2040 indicate that the SAF will still be able to mobilise about 300,000 soldiers from Regulars, Full-time National Servicemen (NSFs) and Operationally Ready NSmen (ORNS).

The SAF has taken into account our manpower requirements over the longer term through our transformation towards a 3rd Generation (3G) SAF. Through advances in technology and with more effective systems and platforms, various units within the 3G SAF are now more potent and yet need fewer men to operate.

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Let me give Members some examples. The recently acquired High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) needs only three men to fully operate the system, compared with 12 men needed for other artillery systems with less precision and destructive effects. For the Navy, the Formidable-class frigates need a full complement of about 70 men, a very lean crew compared to similar warships from other navies, which typically operate with about 100 men. The recently acquired Heron-1 Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) also gives us greater aerial surveillance capabilities for the same number of people deployed, as compared to older UAVs.

The SAF will continue to invest steadily and prudently in such advanced technologies to sharpen our capabilities and to be more efficient in the use of our manpower resources.

Beyond investing in technologically advanced platforms, we also leverage on technology to network our platforms together to provide us greater synergy in training and operations. So, one example is the recently inaugurated community for Command, Control, Communications, Computers and Intelligence.

Another important factor driving up the overall capability and productivity of the SAF lies in the rising quality of our servicemen. Our servicemen are more educated now and also more technologically savvy and are able to train more effectively, as well as operate the sophisticated systems within the 3G SAF.

So, as a whole, the higher quality of our NSmen, combined with the advanced platforms and effective use of technology to network our systems, will ensure that the SAF continues to be an effective military force and a strong deterrent against any aggression.

I thank the Minister for Defence for the assurance. It is certainly reassuring. I have a question arising out of the use of technology. Because of the quick pace of technology advancement, in order for our NSmen who perform ICT, for example, myself, who is still performing ICT, to leverage on that technology and be kept up to speed, would there be refresher courses for men like us, to operate the systems? So, have refresher courses for NSmen to be kept up to speed to fulfil their missions.

The answer to the Member is, yes, and it is a good problem. I will just give two examples, recent ones. Recently, when I visited the division headquarters (HQ), these were NSmen who were in their late 30s and early 40s. For Members who had done NS, you would remember that when you entered in-camp training (ICT) and you were recceing the grounds for the deployment and operations, previously there was a bit of a lag time. The complaint that they gave me was that the moment they entered into ICT, the division HQ was up and running and they were staring at computer screens, the recce was over and done with. Because now you can recce and send images back on the spot without even having to come back. So, it is a good problem and the Member is quite right, some of them are saying that the transition – from civilian life just an hour before, to military operations – is a stark one. And I see that as a good problem.

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Another example is these technical gadgets that we have, we place them on men, or our tanks or various platforms, where you know that you are shot, and that provides realism into the training situation. So, I would say, yes, as the technologically advanced platforms are put into place not only in terms of effect but for training, there is certainly more realism and it does require our men to train more realistically. But the feedback has been that it is a positive one. They like the fact that this is realistic.

Mr Speaker, Sir, one supplementary question for the Minister. It is heartening to note that investments in technology and training will continue to keep our force relevant and effective. Given the changing global security and military environments, is the Ministry reviewing the type of technology and type of training being employed to address counter insurgency, terrorism, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) requirements that are being placed more and more on militaries all throughout the world, to make sure that the SAF can continue playing a role in that area?

Again, Mr Speaker, yes. The Member has brought up a very relevant point. The SAF is now required to respond to a wider spectrum of threats, not only scenarios of extreme aggression, response to extreme aggression, but, in recent years, as you have seen, response to humanitarian assistance in the Indian Ocean tsunami, in terms of Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar. That calls for a re-look at our capabilities, not only in terms of transport but in terms of integrating our various services. So, this is very much well into our planning process, and we will acquire platforms that allow us to fulfil our missions, that are very cost effective. And yet, at the same time, we are also mindful in terms of our manpower resources to make sure that they are manned very leanly.

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