Assessing HDB Public Housing Demand Forecast Accuracy over Past 10 Years and Annual Comparison of Forecasted and Actual Demand

Mr Cai Yinzhou asked the Minister for National Development (a) what methodology and indicators does HDB use to forecast public housing demand; (b) over what time horizon is such forecast made; and (c) in each of the past 10 years (i) how has the forecasted demand compared against actual demand and (ii) what has the variance been.

The Housing and Development Board (HDB) adopts a comprehensive approach in planning new flat supply, taking into account demographic and socio-economic trends, prevailing market conditions, and the supply of resale flats on the open market. These include both long-term demand projections to guide infrastructure preparations and near-term demand projections to determine the supply of Build-to-Order (BTO) flats on a year-to-year basis.

In the last 10 years, HDB's planned supply has been sufficient to meet demand, except when the housing market was disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. To meet the stronger-than-expected demand arising from the pandemic, HDB stepped up our supply of BTO flats, including Shorter Waiting Time flats with waiting times of less than three years. New flat application rates have since come down.