Debated in Parliament on 3 Mar 2025.
Head N, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mr Vikram Nair again.
Chairman, I seek to move, "That the sum to be allocated for Head N of the Estimates be reduced by $100".
In the Committee of Supply (COS) last year, the United States (US)-China relationship was described as the "most consequential" for international affairs. It appears that this year, one of the most consequential factors is not just this relationship, but the new US administration's recalibration of almost all its international relationships.
Other than US and China, the major powers of the world may be considered the developed world countries, the nuclear powers as well as the G20 economies.
Following the last election in the US, the new administration in its first month in office included plans to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico, the US' closest neighbours and important trading partners under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Around the same time, tariffs were also threatened against the European Union (EU) countries, hitherto a close ally of the US in both economic and security matters.
Indeed, US is Europe's largest trading partner and most EU countries are also a security ally of the US through the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Traditionally, US and Western Europe had been regarded as the "West", a group of generally philosophically aligned developed nations. It appears though that this alliance is now under pressure.
The differences on security matters have played out most starkly in positions on the war in Ukraine, with most European NATO allies condemning Russia's attack and supporting Ukraine's right of self-defence.
The US, which was hitherto, being an important supporter of the effort with provision of weapons to Ukraine, seems to now be more focused on a mineral deal with Ukraine and pressuring Ukraine to negotiate a peace deal that may involve giving up large parts of its territory, which was illegally conquered. The most obvious evidence of this rift was US voting along with Russia and North Korea against a resolution in the United Nations (UN) put forward by its Western allies condemning the invasion of Ukraine.
I would like to ask the Minister what impact these shifts in major power alliances will have for Singapore and whether there are any opportunities for Singapore in what appears to be a much less certain world.
In relation to China though, the US position does not seem to have changed significantly between the administrations in terms of direction. The new administration has announced a further increase in tariffs against selected goods from China. These may have less of a dramatic effect as the two countries' economies have already been decoupling since the initial round of tariffs launched more than a decade ago.
At the same time, contestation between the two, especially on the technology front, has intensified. The launch of DeepSeek has demonstrated China's artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities, developed at a much lower cost than its counterparts in the US. It appears the race is very much on between these two great powers on the technology front.
As US-China contestation intensifies, how has Singapore's ties with these major powers changed, and how has our role in the global landscape been affected? What can Singapore do to manage these tensions? Finally, how would Singapore respond to the risks of being caught in this contestation between the US-China in the tech space and on other fronts?
*Question proposed.*
Chairman, both the US and China are important partners of Singapore. We have had a long history of friendly relationships with both countries, with strategic cooperation in almost every sector.
The US has been Singapore's largest foreign direct investment partner, with investments in manufacturing, wholesale trade, finance and insurance. China is Singapore's biggest trading partner and Singapore is its largest foreign investor.
The US-China political and trade relations are at their lowest points in years. They have disagreements on many issues and in addition, rivalry has led to a very tense situation.
How should Singapore chart our foreign policy amidst the US-China rivalry, given our close ties with both countries? How can Singapore remain a relevant and trusted partner to both major countries?
Chairman, Singapore stands at a pivotal moment in our foreign relations, particularly in balancing our ties with the US and China.
As a small nation reliant on global stability, we must carefully navigate the intensifying competition between these two major powers.
Our relationship with the US remains robust. In 2024, we renewed a long-standing agreement that grants US military access to our facilities, further cementing our security partnership. Economically, the US is also our largest foreign investor, with over US$600 billion invested in Singapore in 2023.
At the same time, our ties with China are deepening and continue to grow. In 2023, the China-Singapore Free Trade Agreement was updated, enhancing cooperation in critical areas such as the digital economy and green technology. Singapore is also China's largest foreign investor and plays a pivotal role in the Belt and Road Initiative.
However, challenges persist. The intensifying US-China rivalry over technologies like semi-conductors and artificial intelligence (AI) is creating significant uncertainty for businesses here. Companies in Singapore are grappling with the complexities of navigating regulations and trade restrictions from both sides.
Geopolitical concerns are also rising. China's actions in the South China Sea and its economic practices have sparked apprehension among some Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries. At the same time, despite initiatives like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, uncertainties persist regarding the US' long-term commitment to the region.
Given the increasingly complex global landscape, how can Singapore continue to strengthen our bilateral relations with both the US and China, while safeguarding our independence and advancing our national interests?
Chairman, there is a troubling resurgence of big power contestation and the rising possibility of a hot war with leaders who appear increasingly dismissive of international laws and norms.
History reminds us that powerful nations have always vied for influence. But the speed and intensity of today's power plays are unprecedented. In this volatile environment, smaller states like Singapore cannot afford to be complacent. Just look at what happened in the Oval Office last week. We must remember that when great powers collide, smaller nations must keep their wits, or risk being trampled.
Why does all this matter to Singapore? Singapore thrives because of the integrity of global trade routes and rules-based norms. Any unilateral tariff or sanction, imposed on a whim by the major powers, can batter our economy. For a small but open economy like ours, every disruption at sea, in the air, or even in boardrooms, echoes across our island.
Our sovereignty depends on the global community honouring international laws. If might becomes right, smaller states will find themselves squeezed. The gradual erosion of long-standing norms casts an ominous shadow over our national security. Peace, after all, is delicate; we cannot let the heavy footprints of great powers tread on our Independence.
Amid the shifting calculus of the circles of power in Washington, Beijing, Moscow and beyond, we must stand ready for sudden turns in policy, whether in technology alliances or strategic supply chains. Because in a fluid world where alliances can form and fracture overnight, vigilance and self-reliance are our strongest shields.
Singapore's reliability stems from abiding by international law and seeking peaceful resolution of disputes. This steadfast posture bolsters our credibility. Simply put, we pick no sides; we pick principles.
We continue to nurture strong ties with our partners, while fortifying ASEAN unity. A cohesive regional bloc protects our shared interests and dampens external pressures. A united ASEAN is our best bet against the crosswinds of big power rivalries. However, we have our share of problems.
Mr Chairman, Singaporeans must also realise how vital it is to avoid reflexively choosing sides. That could serve another power's agenda rather than Singapore's. A well-informed, united citizenry is our frontline in foreign policy. When we collectively understand the rationale behind our diplomatic stances, we become a nation that speaks with one voice and stands firm amidst the chaos.
In this epoch of renewed big power contests, Singapore's path must be clear: remain steadfast in our principles, unwavering in our commitment to international law, and yet astute in balancing relationships with all of our partners, big or small. We may be small, but we must stand tall, guided by the power of principle over the principle of power.
I therefore support the Ministry's budget. We must stand behind our Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) officers who work tirelessly to secure Singapore's place in a world increasingly turned on its head.
Because when the storms of geopolitics rage, Singapore will and must stay resolute, for that is how small states like ours stand our ground.
Chairman, as tensions between the US and China remain unresolved, businesses and Singaporeans are concerned about the broader implications on trade, investment and security. Could the Ministry provide an update on Singapore's efforts to navigate these challenges, particularly in maintaining our relevance as a neutral and strategic partner to both the US and China, ensuring continued trade access and investment flows? How is MFA strengthening diplomatic and economic engagements to safeguard Singapore's interests amidst increasing global fragmentation?
Sir, Singapore's most pressing foreign policy challenge today is managing escalating rivalry between the US and China. As a small state with an open economy, Singapore is highly vulnerable to disruptions from this great power competition. Balancing strong military and economic ties with the US with deep economic links with China requires careful diplomacy, strategic autonomy and economic adaptability.
To mitigate these risks, Singapore should diversify its economy by strengthening trade investment ties with ASEAN and the EU, as well as with India, Japan, South Korea and other growing economies, ensuring that these relationships are based on stable and predictable legal and institutional frameworks.
Changes in US engagement in Asia and rising military tensions with China create new security challenges for Singapore. To strengthen its defence resilience, Singapore should strengthen its defence partnership with the US while expanding security cooperation with more countries, including some of our neighbours in Southeast Asia.
At the same time, Singapore must continue building up the capability and competence of the Singapore Armed Forces to ensure it remains a credible deterrent against emerging threats.
Building diplomatic goodwill through bilateral engagement and assistance will also be important in winning international support for Singapore in times of crisis. MFA should expand efforts to educate businesses, non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and the public about our strategic interest through town halls and closed hall closed door briefings.
It can also make better use of social media, podcasts and short videos to ensure foreign policy messaging reaches wider domestic and international audiences. Could the Minister outline what MFA is doing in these areas and how it plans to strengthen its such efforts?
Chairman, multilateralism has been the cornerstone of our world since the end of World War II. The United Nations, along with the Bretton Woods institutions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank were the key pillars of a world where major powers acknowledged that this was the best hope for a more prosperous and secure world for everyone.
This was followed by a proliferation of multilateral treaties on a wide range of matters over the decades as countries found more and more areas to cooperate on. Singapore, like many other countries, prospered against this backdrop and is party to a large network of multilateral and bilateral treaties.
In my opening cut, I had discussed how the US seems to be redefining its relationships with both its NAFTA and NATO allies. More troublingly, the US has also announced it will withdraw from the World Health Organisation and the Paris Climate Agreement.
What is the impact of these moves on international co-operation to tackle issues such as pandemics and climate change, and how can small states like Singapore prevent a weakening of the international rules-based order?
Chairman, Singapore's prosperity depends on a stable and rules-based international system. As global discussions evolve in areas like AI, cybersecurity, and climate change, how is Singapore ensuring that our national interests are protected at multilateral fora? What steps are we taking, to stay actively engaged with key international partners so that we remain influential in shaping policies that impact us?
Given that international law is crucial for a small trade-dependent nation like ours, how is Singapore contributing to efforts to uphold global rules and safeguard our long-term security and economic interests?
Chairman, since the end of World War II, the world has benefited from a stable rules-based international order. As a result, the relative peace and order in most parts of the world have enabled development and economic growth, uplifting millions from poverty and raising the standards of living for people around the globe.
As a small state with no natural resources and whose economy is highly dependent on trade, Singapore has benefited greatly from the conducive global environment brought about by the rules-based international order too. Since our Independence 60 years ago, Singapore has been a keen supporter of globalisation and free trade. We have also participated actively in international organisations, such as the UN and the World Trade Organization. These have fostered Singapore's economic advances and national development over the years and contributed to higher living standards and prosperity for many Singaporeans.
However, the global environment is now changing, with the rules-based international order under immense stress from developments, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, tensions in the Middle East and recent tariff conflicts. These developments are detrimental to the interests of small states like Singapore.
Against this backdrop, what is Singapore doing to support the upholding of the rules-based international order which is under tremendous stress? With declining support for globalisation, how are we supporting international bodies that promote globalisation which is critical for Singapore's survival and prosperity?
Mr Chairman, since the World War II, countries around the world have largely operated under a set of principles, norms, rules and agreements and where nations' sovereignties are respected.
The current state of international affairs and the worrying recent developments have, however, severely threatened this rules-based global order and thrust countries like Singapore into this unchartered territory. Are we seeing the erosions of multilateralism and fraying of the rules-based global order?
In September last year, at the Summit of the Future, under the auspices of the UN, world leaders adopted the Pact of the Future. This aims to reinvigorate and better position multilateral institutions to address complex challenges at a time when multilateralism itself is under pressure. How has Singapore contributed to the Pact for the Future and how will Singapore continue to contribute to strengthening multilateralism?
Chairman, since 1965, our core foreign policy has served us well through three distinctive periods in the international world order. The first was the Cold War, a time when global world power was divided into fixed blocs of influence, with parts of Southeast Asia mired in active conflicts. The second came after the fall of the Berlin Wall, ushering in a unipolar world dominated by the United States, where globalisation and free trade became the defining aspects of international relations. And the third part, which emerged from the mid-2010s, has been marked by increasing economic decoupling and geopolitical tensions, with global affairs shaped largely through the lens of US-China rivalry.
Now, with the incoming Trump Administration triggering off tectonic shifts in both global trade and geopolitics, we could be entering a disorderly interregnum. As we celebrate SG60, how can we ensure that Singapore's foreign policy is sufficiently future-proofed for the challenges ahead?
PAPERCUTS